A comparison of in-sample forecasting methods

In-sample forecasting is a recent continuous modification of well-known forecasting methods based on aggregated data. These aggregated methods are known as age-cohort methods in demography, economics, epidemiology and sociology and as chain ladder in non-life insurance. Data is organized in a two-way table with age and cohort as indices, but without measures of exposure. It has recently been established that such structured forecasting methods based on aggregated data can be interpreted as structured histogram estimators. Continuous in-sample forecasting transfers these classical forecasting models into a modern statistical world including smoothing methodology that is more efficient than smoothing via histograms. All in-sample forecasting estimators are collected and their performance is compared via a finite sample simulation study. All methods are extended via multiplicative bias correction. Asymptotic theory is being developed for the histogram-type method of sieves and for the multiplicatively corrected estimators. The multiplicative bias corrected estimators improve all other known in-sample forecasters in the simulation study. The density projection approach seems to have the best performance with forecasting based on survival densities being the runner-up

Standing osteosynthesis of an accessory carpal bone fracture in a Warmblood mare with a 6‐hole 3.5 talonavicular fusion plate and 3.5‐mm screws

A 9-year-old Warmblood, high-level showjumping mare sustained an acute, closed, vertical, comminuted fracture of the left accessory carpal bone (ACB) during a fall. The fracture was repaired under standing sedation and local anaesthesia, using a 6-hole APTUS® 3.5 TFP and 5 × 3.5-mm self-tapping TriLock© screws. The mare recovered from surgery without complications. Upon follow-up examination 9 months post-operatively the mare was sound in all gaits and back to full athletic activity. The ACB fracture had completely healed. The displaced dorsoproximal fracture fragment was in a stationary position and there was evidence of mild nonprogressive osteoarthritis of the antebrachiocarpal joint

Silent synapses generate sparse and orthogonal action potential firing in adult-born hippocampal granule cells.

In adult neurogenesis young neurons connect to the existing network via formation of thousands of new synapses. At early developmental stages, glutamatergic synapses are sparse, immature and functionally 'silent', expressing mainly NMDA receptors. Here we show in 2- to 3-week-old young neurons of adult mice, that brief-burst activity in glutamatergic fibers is sufficient to induce postsynaptic AP firing in the absence of AMPA receptors. The enhanced excitability of the young neurons lead to efficient temporal summation of small NMDA currents, dynamic unblocking of silent synapses and NMDA-receptor-dependent AP firing. Therefore, early synaptic inputs are powerfully converted into reliable spiking output. Furthermore, due to high synaptic gain, small dendritic trees and sparse connectivity, neighboring young neurons are activated by different distinct subsets of afferent fibers with minimal overlap. Taken together, synaptic recruitment of young neurons generates sparse and orthogonal AP firing, which may support sparse coding during hippocampal information processing

CP Violation in \tau ->\nu\pi K_S and D->\pi K_S: The Importance of K_S-K_L Interference

The $B$-factories have measured CP asymmetries in the $\tau\to\pi K_S\nu$ and $D\to K_S\pi$ modes. The $K_S$ state is identified by its decay to two pions at a time that is close to the $K_S$ lifetime. Within the Standard Model and many of its extensions, the asymmetries in these modes come from CP violation in $K^0-\bar{K}^0$ mixing. We emphasize that the interference between the amplitudes of intermediate $K_S$ and $K_L$ is as important as the pure $K_S$ amplitude. Consequently, the measured asymmetries depend on the times over which the relevant decay rates are integrated and on features of the experiment.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Traffic accident-related injuries in horses

Horses involved in road traffic accidents (RTAs) are commonly presented to veterinarians with varying types of injuries. The aim of this study was describe the pattern and severity of traffic accident-related injuries in horses in a single hospital population. Medical records of horses either hit by a motorized vehicle or involved in RTAs whilst being transported from 1993 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed and the following data was extracted: Signalement, hospitalisation time, month in which the accident happened, cause of the accident, place of the accident and type of vehicle hitting the horse. Further the different body sites injured (head, neck, breast, fore limb, abdomen, back and spine, pelvis and ileosacral region, hind limb, tail and genital region), the type of injury (wounds, musculoskeletal lesions and internal lesions) and the presence of neurological signs were retrieved from the medical records. 34 horses hit by motorized vehicles and 13 horses involved in RTAs whilst being transported were included in the study. Most of the accidents where horses were hit by motorized vehicles occurred during December (14.7%) and October (14.7%), horses were most commonly hit by cars (85.3%) and the majority of accidents occurred on main roads (26.5%). In 29.4% of the cases, horses had escaped from their paddock and then collided with a motorized vehicle. Most of the accidents with horses involved in RTAs whilst being transported occurred during April (30.8%) and June (23.1%). In 76.9% of the cases the accident happened on a freeway. In the horses hit by motorized vehicles the proximal hind limbs were the body site most commonly affected (44.1%), followed by the proximal front limbs (38.2%) and the head (32.4%). When horses were involved in RTAs whilst being transported the proximal fore limbs (61.5%), the proximal hind limbs (53.8%) and the distal hind limbs, back and head (38.5% each) were the most common injured body sites. Wounds were the most common type of injury in both groups(85.3% hit by motorized vehicle, 76.9% transported ones). In horses hit by a motorized vehicle 35.3% suffered from fractures, in 20.6% a synovial structure was involved and in 5.9% a tendon lesion was present. 14.7% suffered from internal lesions and 14.7% showed neurologic symptoms (40% peripheral, 60% central neurologic deficits). On the other hand, in horses involved in a RTA whilst being transported 30.8% suffered from fractures. There were no synovial structures injured and no tendon injuries were present. Furthermore there were no internal lesions present and only one horse involved in a RTA showed central neurologic symptoms. Injuries of horses being hit by a motorized vehicle were more severe than when horses were protected by a trailer and involved in an RTA whilst being transported. The study has been able to identify the different injury types of traffic accident-related injuries in horses. Awareness of the nature of these injuries is important, to avoid underestimation of their severity

Synaptic Integration of Adult-Born Hippocampal Neurons Is Locally Controlled by Astrocytes.

Adult neurogenesis is regulated by the neurogenic niche, through mechanisms that remain poorly defined. Here, we investigated whether niche-constituting astrocytes influence the maturation of adult-born hippocampal neurons using two independent transgenic approaches to block vesicular release from astrocytes. In these models, adult-born neurons but not mature neurons showed reduced glutamatergic synaptic input and dendritic spine density that was accompanied with lower functional integration and cell survival. By taking advantage of the mosaic expression of transgenes in astrocytes, we found that spine density was reduced exclusively in segments intersecting blocked astrocytes, revealing an extrinsic, local control of spine formation. Defects in NMDA receptor (NMDAR)-mediated synaptic transmission and dendrite maturation were partially restored by exogenous D-serine, whose extracellular level was decreased in transgenic models. Together, these results reveal a critical role for adult astrocytes in local dendritic spine maturation, which is necessary for the NMDAR-dependent functional integration of newborn neurons

Measurements of time-dependent CP asymmetries in B→D∗∓π±B \to D^{*\mp} \pi^{\pm} decays using a partial reconstruction technique

We report results on time-dependent CP asymmetries in $B \to D^{*\mp}\pi^{\pm}$ decays based on a data sample containing 657 {\times} $10^6$ $B\bar{B}$ pairs collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy $e^+ e^-$ collider at the $\Upsilon(4S)$ resonance. We use a partial reconstruction technique, wherein signal $B \to D^{*\mp}\pi^{\pm}$ events are identified using information only from the fast pion from the B decay and the slow pion from the subsequent decay of the $D^{*\mp}$, where the former (latter) corresponds to $D^{*+} (D^{*-})$ final states. We obtain CP violation parameters $S^+ = +0.061 \pm 0.018(\mathrm{stat}) \pm 0.012(\mathrm{syst})$ and $S^- = +0.031 \pm 0.019(\mathrm{stat}) \pm 0.015(\mathrm{syst})$.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physical Review D (RC

Measurement of the decay B0→π−ℓ+νB^0\to\pi^-\ell^+\nu and determination of ∣Vub∣|V_{ub}|

We present a measurement of the charmless semileptonic decay $B^0\to\pi^-\ell^+\nu$ using a data sample containing 657$\times 10^6$ $B\bar{B}$ events collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy $e^+e^-$ collider operating near the $\Upsilon(4S)$ resonance. We determine the total branching fraction of the decay, $\mathcal{B}(B^0\to\pi^-\ell^+\nu)=(1.49\pm 0.04{(\mathrm{stat})}\pm 0.07{(\mathrm{syst})})\times 10^{-4}$. We also report a new precise measurement of the differential decay rate, and extract the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element $|V_{ub}|$ using model-independent and -dependent approaches. From a simultaneous fit to the measured differential decay rate and lattice QCD results, we obtain $|V_{ub}|=(3.43\pm 0.33)\times 10^{-3}$, where the error includes both statistical and systematic uncertainties.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, Submitted to PRD(RC

Search for CP violation in the decays D(s)+→KS0π+D^+_{(s)} \to K_S^0\pi^+ and D(s)+→KS0K+D^+_{(s)} \to K_S^0K^+

We have searched for CP violation in the charmed meson decays $D^{+}_{(s)}\to K^0_S\pi^+$ and $D^{+}_{(s)}\to K^0_S K^+$ using 673 fb$^{-1}$ of data collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy $e^+e^-$ collider. No evidence for CP violation is observed. We report the most sensitive CP asymmetry measurements to date for these decays: $A_{CP}^{D^+\to K^0_S\pi^+}=(-0.71\pm0.19\pm0.20)$, $A_{CP}^{D^+_s\to K^0_S\pi^+}=(+5.45\pm2.50\pm0.33)$, $A_{CP}^{D^+\to K^0_S K^+}=(-0.16\pm0.58\pm0.25)$, and $A_{CP}^{D^+_s\to K^0_S K^+}=(+0.12\pm0.36\pm0.22)$, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic